Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 18.258078 22.084028 26.330034 31.366058 37.149348 43.555954 51.161727
2025-03-16 11.629292 16.263411 21.995264 29.494301 38.924938 50.265066 64.793116
2025-03-23 9.021710 14.110751 20.939077 30.525971 43.364065 59.670606 81.616580
2025-03-30 6.847873 11.887474 19.169630 30.048870 45.420371 65.854420 94.479625
2025-04-06 5.828178 11.042147 19.049507 31.620461 50.139812 75.628050 112.421016
2025-04-13 4.226897 8.893358 16.591050 29.379722 49.117852 77.334377 119.402256
2025-04-20 3.533664 8.102349 16.084275 29.945500 52.114877 84.723882 134.517108
2025-04-27 3.022918 7.518546 15.803076 30.779852 55.506280 92.799310 150.939949
2025-05-04 2.640320 7.091634 15.710919 31.873086 59.325628 101.656914 168.861750
2025-05-11 2.262146 6.579806 15.372734 32.473523 62.343283 109.403024 185.432164
2025-05-18 1.863643 5.917111 14.633686 32.253064 63.936585 114.970045 198.900689
2025-05-25 1.474569 5.162430 13.578305 31.305961 64.173180 118.342259 209.075968
2025-06-01 1.183624 4.604153 12.913920 31.176721 66.098839 124.989077 225.433599
2025-06-08 0.841420 3.767202 11.475990 29.350892 64.865501 126.455472 233.829859
2025-06-15 0.720691 3.555280 11.441624 30.381107 68.948813 137.032923 257.374288
2025-06-22 0.556326 3.116271 10.750752 29.906003 70.111342 142.636314 272.972395
2025-06-29 0.497407 3.038873 10.977034 31.471623 75.333863 155.551913 301.234784
2025-07-06 0.333642 2.433950 9.623297 29.239432 72.806431 154.575339 306.013793
2025-07-13 0.276630 2.264167 9.469120 29.803041 75.980688 163.992512 328.884788
2025-07-20 0.234553 2.141165 9.428486 30.634207 79.761285 174.682308 354.340512
2025-07-27 0.203280 2.056013 9.489001 31.723293 84.156258 186.696113 382.522514
2025-08-03 0.168903 1.924757 9.366478 32.321463 87.524245 196.917764 407.882737
2025-08-10 0.130207 1.725561 8.956925 32.101836 89.069602 203.731227 427.396606